The reestablishment of global and regional value chains is also boosting trade in capital goods and intermediate inputs. For example, the growth of US industrial output is expected to accelerate the recovery in Mexico’s manufacturing sector due to the strong synchronicity between the business cycles of the two countries. Similarly, given the close integration of many developing countries in ECA with the European Union, the restoration of European regional value chains is expected to enhance growth prospects across ECA. As global economic activity recovers, prices for oil, metals, food and other commodities are expected to rise. Recovering commodity prices have already bolstered growth in some ECA countries, including Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, as well as in LAC countries such as Brazil, Colombia, Chile, and Peru. Although higher commodity prices will be tailwinds for resource-rich commodity exporters, they will be headwinds for net importers, especially developing countries that rely on oil imports. Trade in services will likely remain subdued and is not expected to return to pre-pandemic levels before 2022. The hospitality and travel sectors continue to be the most severely affected by the crisis, and tourism-dependent countries in the Caribbean and the Balkans face a slow and uncertain recovery. A third source of divergence is in the policy response adopted by fiscal and monetary authorities. Several counties are confronting inflationary pressures that will limit the ability of their central banks to maintain accommodative monetary policies. Expansionary monetary stances, rapid credit growth, exchange-rate depreciation, and rising commodity prices have amplified inflationary pressures in Brazil, Kazakhstan, Mexico, Russia, Turkey, and Ukraine. Many central banks either already hiked benchmark policy rates in Q1 2021 or have signaled the end of their easing cycles. Though necessary to manage inflation, monetary tightening could dampen prospects for a swift recovery by putting pressure on interest rates, spurring capital outflows, or weakening exchange rates. Tighter monetary policies in advanced economies could also worsen financing conditions for emerging markets and intensify the volatility of capital flows, especially to the most vulnerable ECA and LAC economies. Even in the absence of monetary tightening, US 10-year bond yields have risen sharply in Q1 2021, putting pressure on emerging-market exchange rates that may need to accelerate the tightening of their monetary policy stance. Fiscal pressure has also intensified as governments strive to extend emergency economic support without undermining investor confidence. The pandemic-induced recession has triggered a surge in deficits and debt levels in many economies, especially LAC and ECA countries, many of which had already experienced a rapid debt buildup prior to 2020.https://blogs.worldbank.org/developmenttalk/uneven-global-economic-recovery-2021-promises-invert-longstanding-principle-success
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